Current Open Long-term Swing Positions

Just a quick update on the positions I’m currently holding;

Before we go any further, if you weren’t already aware, I trade a mechanical strategy that tells me when to enter and when to exit. I trade this on a H4 chart [If you’ve read other parts of the website you’ll know I’ve more recently moved up to a D1 chart, but back to this example…] and typically hold trades for anywhere between a few days up to a couple of months.

Firstly, $DAX (Short) Entry: 12670.3 – So far, up approx. +400 points profit. I was very slightly late to enter on this and price initially went against me by approx. 75 points before price turned around. Thankfully I had quite a wide stop of approx. 145 points.

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The position was opened when my system gave me a short signal on Tuesday June 20th. I’m miles away from an exit signal so if this continues to play out I could well be holding the short for another week or two.As long as price continues to fall, I’ll continue to hold…

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Update: Trailing stop hit down at 12415.1, I trailed it behind each H4 high and was taken out of the trade on the 5th of July on the 08:00am H4 candle as we ramped upwards. Out for +255.2 points. No complaints.

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Secondly, $TSCO (Long) Entry: 247.05 – This is much more of a long-term play with a target of up at £3.00 p/s (Although, as usual, even if/when hit, I’ll still be holding for an exit signal). Again, I found this whilst running a scan and was late to enter, but it looked like a great opportunity so I took the trade. So far sitting around breakeven within a range.

TSCO-08.06.18-SC

Update: Out of the Tesco long at 259.54 for +1.12R, a +4.12% gain risking 4% on the trade. A high risk percentage, but in such a strong trend and on a H4 timeframe I felt the risk was justified.

Why did I close this trade? I closed this trade manually pre-exit signal as I’m moving up from a H4 to a D1 timeframe because I recently opened a new account to day-trade a couple of my edges and I realised I’d struggle to manage the swing portfolio whilst also concentrating on other shorter timeframe positions.

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Thirdly, $BATS (Short) Entry: 3793.7 – I found this whilst running a scan when looking to add a short stock position to diversify the portfolio (I was looking to take a short position on a US stock to balance long-short) and although I was very slightly late to enter and my short entry signal had been offered a few H4 bars back, it looked like a very solid play.

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As I was hoping, price has instantly gone my way so far (These are usually the best trades) and within 48 hours I’m up just above +200 points profit and it’s taken my open P&L up above +5.4R. You know it by now; As long as price continues to fall, I’ll continue to hold…

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Update: Unfortunately, my trailing stop was hit and I was taken out of the $BATS trade at break-even on June 20th at the beginning of the session. After the initial fall, price began to retrace and I wasn’t offered a chance to trail the stop without compromising running the position. Next trade…

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As I said originally, I’m always mindful that any position I open is just one trade in hundreds of trades that I’ll take, and they could well all be small, manageable losses. If they are, I’ll continue to follow my plan and move on to the next opportunity knowing that across a large enough sample size of trades, my edge will play out and my strategy is profitable.

In this case, these three trades have all given fairly positive outcomes. Not brilliant by any means, but a break-even trade, a +1.12R and a +2.4R aren’t to be sniffed at.

My next post in this section will be an entry from my trade journal analysing my overall performance across a quarter. Look out for that soon.

If you have any questions, feel free to Email me.

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Two recent trades, one winner and one cost of business;

In this post I’ll cover two of my trades from May just gone, one winning trade and one cost of business. Let’s begin with the winning trade. Here’s the trade journal entry with all the details;

winner - sheet

The trade was a long position on the DAX on May 15th at 15:10pm. Entry was 12995.3 and exit was 13151.4. I held the trade for 4 days and closed the trade for a +156.1 point profit [+2.3R] on May 20th on the Sunday evening open at 23:05pm. My stop on the trade was 70 pips and I risked 2.5% of my total account equity. Let’s look at the chart;

Winner-Chart

On the above chart the upward and downward arrows show the H1 bars that I entered and exited on. The horizontal bars show the exact entry and exit points.

Entry:

My system gave me an entry signal as momentum was building, so I got long. Although the overnight low was taken the next morning, price swiftly rebounded (As is often the case) so I held the position.

Exit:

I exited using discretion 4 days later, to re-buy following a gap close.

Next, the cost of business;

loser - sheet.jpg

The trade was a short position on the DAX on May 25th at 11:55am. Entry was 12987.5 and exit was 13004.4. I held the trade for 3 days and closed the trade for a -2.7 point cost of business [-0.3R] on May 28th on at 08:00am. My stop on the trade was 80 pips and I risked 3% of my total account equity. Let’s look at the chart;

Loser-Chart

If there was ever an example of cutting a losing trade quickly, this is it. Price initially went largely in my favour, but then gapped higher over the weekend and although I’d usually play for a gap close, my exit signal presented itself and with the increase in volatility, I executed before the loss could potentially get out of hand.

Protecting account balance is crucial. If we run out of money in our account, we’re finished, so as soon as an exit signal presents itself I’m out. No guessing, no predictions.

Overall I’m happy with how I handled these trades. I made money, I executed well, followed my plan and when I deviated, the decision was backed up by data, not fear or greed.

Next trade…

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